China Evergrande Declared in Default for First Time By Bloomberg Markets and Finance

Damien, China ever, Grant default we’ve been waiting for that d word for a wild, a minute comes. And it’s just like, okay, what next, what? Next Damien, the news that everyone’s been waiting for so look, I mean luck. Yes. Restricted the fault, which place both ever Grande. En caisson restricted, default overnight. And look, you know, that’s about 30 billion dollars in offshore bonds, which are now subject to cross the faults. And so we’re going to see how it all shakes loose for me. It’s going to be, you know, prioritizing creditors and if you look at our friends at Marathon, Ashmore HSN UBS out.

Leon’s, BlackRock, all of which only these bonds, they’re probably have very low expectations and what they’re going to get paid back, especially after the seven-member credit risk. Committee was formed with the Guangdong provincial government or two entities there in sitting on the board. They’re going to prioritize employees. They’re going to prioritize homeowners suppliers and offshore creditors are going to be bottom of the stack. And that is the risk. So what is the recovery Jonathan on these bonds for offshore creditors? The verdict is still out but they’re trading at 20 cents on the dollar. So that gives you some semblance of where we are. Well, the bar is pretty low.

Ugly, people are having pretty low expectations. I do want to know. If you take a step back, what this means in terms of how China will handle a restructuring. This is the first really major restructuring at a time. When we’ve kind of, cast aside, fears of contagion, right? I mean that the government seems to be trying to step in, but there is a larger message for the Chinese credit markets, especially as International investors want to get in, especially with those yields where they are. Well, I think you got to look at Bay o Shang. They are saying bank, which the fault did you gotta look at H&M.

T, which is the the airline conglomerate without which all of the vaulted, those are your benchmarks? Those are your litmus tests for how this is going to shake out. And again, what it means is that the government’s going to be actively involved. They’re going to prioritize stability Lisa, but they’re probably going to bail in off your creditors when necessary, right? So, you know at the end of the day that’s what you’ve got to look at. That’s going to be sort of, you know your model for how this is going to proceed. But again, the real estate sector is a different Beast altogether. I mean, it comes for 25 percent of China’s economic output, 75 percent of household wealth, so, you know the verdict

I’m getting Damien. I just wanted to clarify you said bail in overseas investors elaborate. What do you think that the government’s going to do? They’re going to treat them as look. I mean like they still need access to Offshore credit markets offshore Capital. So they’re going to you know, treat off your creditors as sort of like a bastard stepchild and then bring them in when necessary, right? I mean, let’s take a look at the underlying Holdings between caixa and evergrande. I mean, qais is focused on Urban Redevelopment projects, you know, the the market thinks that its properties are worth so much more in there so much more liquid than ever Grand.

Which is basically owns default Park. Sorry theme parks in the middle of nowhere. They own a, you know, it’s in Tier 1 C, tier 3, cities, sorry. And you know, so their property valuations are probably a lot less liquid and certainly a lot lower than Chi. So, so, you know, we’re going to see a lot and by the way, we’re also going to see the keep well provision. Remember these property developers have issued their bonds via some offshore entity and there’s a gentleman’s handshake between the operating company and the holding company offshore as to whether or not, they’re going to even pay back those creditors that has yet to be tested in in the China legal.

Then we’re going to see some some evidence of that as well.